Metabical Case Section B Group4

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Metabical Case:
Pricing, Packaging and Demand Forecasting

Case Brief

Demand
Forecasting

Packaging
and Count
Decision

Pricing
Strategy

Introduction of new weight loss drugMetabical

What is the expected demand?
What are the factors deciding packaging count
decisions?
How many tablets in a packet of drug?
What should be the pricing strategy?

ROI

Demand
Forecastin
g

Case Brief

Packaging
and Count
Decision

Pricing
Strategy

ROI

Demand Forecast: Option One
Population Actively
Overweight
trying to lose weight
Population Percentage
Year
(35% of Overweight
(Million)
(BMI 25Users)
30)
(Million)
2008
230
35%
28.175

Time
Frame

People
Comfortable with
Weight Loss Drugs
(Million)
4.2265

Forecast
Second
Percentag
First
Final Supply
Net
ed
Supply
e Market
Supply
Demand
Demand
Consume
Demand
Forecaste
Demand
Forecast
Forecast
rs
Forecast
d to be
(Million
( Million
(Million
(Million
Captures
Packs)
Packs)
Packs)
(Million)
Packs)

Year 1

10%

Year 2

15%

Year 3

20%

Year 4

25%

Year 5

30%

0.42262
5
0.63393
8
0.84525
1.05656
3
1.26787
5

0.422625
0.633938
0.84525
1.056563
1.267875

0.25357
5
0.38036
3
0.50715
0.63393
8
0.76072
5

0.050715

0.726915

0.076073
0.10143

1.090373
1.45383

0.126788

1.817288

0.152145

2.180745

15% of survey respondents comfortable with
using drugs
Pros:
• Covers all potential users.
• Makes good use of population and BMI
trends.
Cons:
• 15% of survey respondents being
comfortable with using drugs does not
signify they will visit health care provider.
They might prefer OTC.
• Income level of potential users is ignored.
• No narrowing down w.r.t education, age
and gender.
• Psychographic segmentation ignored.

Demand
Forecastin
g

Case Brief

Packaging
and Count
Decision

Pricing
Strategy

ROI

Demand Forecast: Option Two
Year

Population
(Million)

Overweight
Percentage
(BMI 25-30)

Potential
Users
(Million)

People Comfortable
with Weight Loss
Drugs (Million)

2008

230

35%

80.5

9.66

Time
Frame

Second
Percentag Forecaste First
Final Supply
Net
Supply
e Market
d
Supply
Demand
Demand
Demand
Forecaste Consumer Demand
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
d to be
s
(Million
( Million
(Million
(Million
Captures (Million) Packs)
Packs)
Packs)
Packs)

Year 1

10%

0.966

0.966

0.5796

0.11592 1.66152

Year 2

15%

1.449

1.449

0.8694

0.17388 2.49228

Year 3

20%

1.932

1.932

1.1592

0.23184 3.32304

Year 4

25%

2.415

2.415

1.449

Year 5

30%

2.898

2.898

1.7388

0.2898 4.1538
0.34776 4.98456

12% of survey respondents when told about
Metabical said they would immediately make
an appointment with their health care
provider
Pros:
• Covers whole of the potential users.
• Covers the population ready to make a
visit to health care provider.

Cons:
• Assumes target segment would know
about the new drug Metabical.
• Income level of potential users ignored.
• No narrowing down w.r.t age, gender and
education level.
• Psychographic segmentation ignored.

Demand
Forecastin
g

Case Brief

Packaging
and Count
Decision

Pricing
Strategy

ROI

Demand Forecast: Option Three
Educated Females, Age 35-65, BMI Between
25-30

Time
Frame

Year

Educated Females/BMI 25-30/Age 3565 (Million)
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